When should I start planning Q4 inventory?

Start in July-August. If you order from overseas with 45-60 day lead times, August orders arrive in October. September is often too late for full Q4 coverage.

How much extra inventory do I need for Q4?

Most e-commerce sees 2-4x normal sales in November-December. Review last year's data. If you sold 100 units in October and 300 in November, plan for 3x.

What are Amazon's Q4 FBA deadlines?

Amazon typically sets FBA inventory deadlines in early November for Black Friday and late November for Christmas. Check Seller Central for current year dates.

Should I use air freight for Q4?

For A items at risk of stockout, yes. The margin hit is better than missing peak sales. Calculate: lost sales cost vs. air freight premium.

How do I handle Q4 returns in January?

Expect 15-30% return rates on some categories. Factor this into Q4 profit calculations and have a returns processing plan.

What if I overstock for Q4?

Excess Q4 inventory becomes January's problem. Plan liquidation strategies now: post-holiday sales, bundles, outlet channels.

Q4 Inventory Planning Checklist: Holiday Season Prep for E-commerce | ReplenishRadar

The Q4 Inventory Challenge

Q4 can make or break your year. For many e-commerce sellers, November and December generate 30-50% of annual revenue.

The challenge: Order enough to capture demand without being stuck with overstock in January.

Q4 Planning Timeline

July: Data Analysis

Pull last year's Q4 sales by SKU
Calculate YoY growth rate
Identify top Q4 performers
Note any anomalies (viral products, stockouts)

August: Forecasting & Ordering

Build Q4 demand forecast
Apply growth assumptions
Place orders for 45+ day lead times
Confirm supplier capacity

September: FBA Preparation

Check Amazon inventory limits
Plan FBA shipments to arrive by Oct 15
Create backup fulfillment plan
Order packaging/supplies

October: Final Push

Rush orders for any gaps (air freight if needed)
Complete FBA shipments before deadlines
Test fulfillment operations
Confirm staffing

November-December: Execution

Monitor sell-through daily
Reorder fast movers if possible
Activate liquidation for slow movers
Track competitor stockouts (opportunity)

The Q4 Demand Forecast

Step 1: Baseline from Last Year

Pull SKU-level data:

SKU-A: Oct 100, Nov 350, Dec 280
SKU-B: Oct 50, Nov 180, Dec 150

Step 2: Apply Growth Rate

If you're growing 20% YoY:

SKU-A Nov forecast: 350 × 1.2 = 420 units

Step 3: Adjust for Known Factors

Add or subtract for:

New marketing spend
Expanded channel presence
Category trends
Economic conditions

Step 4: Add Safety Buffer

Q4 demand is volatile. Add 10-20% buffer for A items:

SKU-A Nov: 420 × 1.15 = 483 units (rounded to 485)

FBA-Specific Q4 Planning

Amazon Inventory Limits

Amazon restricts how much you can send to FBA. Check your limits in August and:

Clear slow movers before Q4
Request limit increases if available
Plan backup fulfillment (FBM, 3PL)

FBA Shipping Deadlines

Typical deadlines (verify current year):

Event	Inventory Deadline
Black Friday	Nov 1-7
Cyber Monday	Nov 7-14
Christmas delivery	Nov 20-25

Ship early. FBA receiving slows dramatically in November.

Long-Term Storage Fees

Inventory sitting since spring? Q4 is your chance to sell it. Products in FBA 271+ days face steep fees. Either sell them during holiday traffic or remove them.

Multi-Channel Q4 Strategy

For sellers on both Shopify and Amazon:

Allocate Inventory Wisely

Channel	Q4 Characteristic	Inventory Strategy
Amazon	Higher volume, Prime expectations	Front-load FBA early
Shopify	Higher margins, more flexible	Keep warehouse buffer

Backup Fulfillment

If FBA hits limits or runs out:

Enable FBM on Amazon listings
Use 3PL for overflow
Consider Shopify fulfillment network

Unified Visibility

Know your total position across all locations:

FBA reserved
FBA available
Warehouse
In transit

ReplenishRadar unifies this view so you know true availability.

The Stockout vs. Overstock Decision

Q4 forces a choice:

Risk of Understocking

Lost sales at peak prices
Lost Amazon ranking
Competitors capture your customers
Revenue impact: Direct loss

Risk of Overstocking

Cash tied up post-holiday
Storage fees (especially FBA)
Liquidation at margin loss
Revenue impact: Margin erosion

The Right Balance

SKU Category	Risk Tolerance	Strategy
A items	Understock worse	Order aggressively + buffer
B items	Balanced	Order to forecast
C items	Overstock worse	Conservative + markdown plan

For A items, the cost of a stockout (lost sales) exceeds the cost of carrying extra inventory.

Air Freight Decision Framework

When to use air freight for Q4:

Air freight makes sense when:
Lost Sales Value > Air Premium Cost

Example:
- SKU sells $50, margin $20
- Sea freight: $2/unit, 45 days
- Air freight: $8/unit, 7 days
- Air premium: $6/unit

If stockout loses 100 sales:
Lost margin: 100 × $20 = $2,000
Air cost for rush 100 units: 100 × $6 = $600

Decision: Air freight saves $1,400

Post-Q4 Planning (Yes, Plan This Now)

January Liquidation Plan

Products that don't sell by Dec 26 need a plan:

Post-holiday sale pricing
Bundle into value packs
Secondary marketplaces
Liquidation channels

Returns Processing

Q4 gifts generate January returns. Plan for:

15-30% return rate on some categories
Refurbishment capacity
Restocking timeline

Q4 Inventory Checklist Summary

August:

Q4 forecast complete
Primary orders placed
Supplier capacity confirmed

September:

FBA limits checked
FBA shipments created
Backup fulfillment ready

October:

FBA inventory received
Gap orders placed (air freight if needed)
Operations tested

November:

Daily monitoring active
Reorder triggers set
Liquidation plan ready

ReplenishRadar helps with Q4 forecasting, showing you projected stockout dates and recommended order quantities based on holiday seasonality patterns.

Plan your Q4 inventory with confidence. Start a free trial and see Q4 forecasts for your SKUs.

Related Reading:

Q4 Inventory Planning Checklist: Holiday Season Prep for E-commerce